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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.